Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors

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Stage 3c

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3c.3 Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency]]

Key Products

  • Packages of policies, practices, and technologies for each sector
  • Comparisons of implementation cost and investment needs between pathways
  • Pathways built from preferred sector-based deployment scenarios

Technical teams perform this analysis to determine the best combination of sectoral pathways to achieve goals, including analysis of the interactions between sectors and interdependency of the selection of climate measures with regulatory, policy, and private sector financial environment and capacity.

Pathways analysis will differ depending on the type of model used. Common models used for this type of analysis are usually divided among bottom-up, top-down models and hybrid models which combine elements of each.

  • Bottom-up models use data on technologies, fuels and related policies to analyze the costs and benefits of each potential technological decision, fuel choice or policy. They do not assume efficient markets and they can capture interactions between different technology and policy choices.
  • Top-down models use aggregrated data to look at costs and benefits of certain policies that are usually not technology specific, such as carbon taxes, to assess impacts on output, GDP and other macroeconomic factors. They can also capture feedback and interactions between sectors and often assume efficient markets. Since many of the policies examined in this stage will likely be technology specific it is recommended that a bottom-up model is used while a top-down model can be used in step 4.6 and the next stage to assess broader macroeconomic impacts.

The following literature provides useful background on the similarities and differences as well applications of these GHG mitigation models.

3c.3.1. Scenario development models
Land Use Models Land Use (Forestry and Agriculture) Scenario and Analysis Toolkit
Energy Models Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit


What tools (models and datasets) can help evaluate carbon mitigation pathways?

What projections exist for technology performance and costs?

3c.3.2 Combine scenarios by sector to conduct integrated, economy-wide analysis

Key Products

  • Pathways built from preferred economy-wide deployment scenarios

In order to combine pathways to develop an economy-wide pathway, the technical team will have to integrate the land-use and energy model analyses and/or results. In some cases the models can be integrated to allow for better representation of interactions between sectors and there are some models that include multiple sectors.