Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors
(Redirected from Scenario development models)
- 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities
- 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country
- 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives
- 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
- Greenhouse Gas Inventory Development Toolkit
- 3a. Analytical Decision Making - Developing BAU Scenario
- 3b. Analytical Decision Making - Assessing Opportunities
- 3b.1. Assess technical potential for sector technologies
- Renewable Energy Technical Potential Toolkit
- Building Energy Assessment Toolkit
- Power System Screening and Design Toolkit
- Land Use Assessment Toolkit
- Bioenergy Assessment Toolkit
- Transportation Assessment Toolkit
- 3b.2. Assess economic and market potential of technologies and initiatives
- Clean Energy Market Analysis Toolkit
- 3b.3. Prioritize development options
- 3c. Analytical Decision Making - Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios
- 3c.1. Develop low emissions growth scenarios
- 3c.2. Assess institutional framework for LEDS
- Financing Initiatives Toolkit
- Policy and Program Design Toolkit
- 3c.3. Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors
- Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit
- Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit
- 3c.4. Perform multi-criteria impact analysis and assess stakeholder responses
- Clean Energy Impact Assessment Tool
- Sustainable Land-use Impact Assessment Toolkit
3c.3 Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors
- Packages of policies, practices, and technologies for each sector
- Comparisons of implementation cost and investment needs between pathways
- Pathways built from preferred sector-based deployment scenarios
Technical teams perform this analysis to determine the best combination of sectoral pathways to achieve goals, including analysis of the interactions between sectors and interdependency of the selection of climate measures with regulatory, policy, and private sector financial environment and capacity.
Pathways analysis will differ depending on the type of model used. Common models used for this type of analysis are usually divided among bottom-up, top-down models and hybrid models which combine elements of each.
- Bottom-up models use data on technologies, fuels and related policies to analyze the costs and benefits of each potential technological decision, fuel choice or policy. They do not assume efficient markets and they can capture interactions between different technology and policy choices.
- Top-down models use aggregrated data to look at costs and benefits of certain policies that are usually not technology specific, such as carbon taxes, to assess impacts on output, GDP and other macroeconomic factors. They can also capture feedback and interactions between sectors and often assume efficient markets. Since many of the policies examined in this stage will likely be technology specific it is recommended that a bottom-up model is used while a top-down model can be used in step 4.6 and the next stage to assess broader macroeconomic impacts.
The following literature provides useful background on the similarities and differences as well applications of these GHG mitigation models.
3c.3.1. Scenario development models
|Land Use Models||Land Use (Forestry and Agriculture) Scenario and Analysis Toolkit|
|Energy Models||Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit|
3c.3.2 Combine scenarios by sector to conduct integrated, economy-wide analysis
- Pathways built from preferred economy-wide deployment scenarios
In order to combine pathways to develop an economy-wide pathway, the technical team will have to integrate the land-use and energy model analyses and/or results. In some cases the models can be integrated to allow for better representation of interactions between sectors and there are some models that include multiple sectors.