Renewable Energy Technical Potential Toolkit
From Open Energy Information
Stage 3
- 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities
- 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country
- 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives
- 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
- Greenhouse Gas Inventory Development Toolkit
- 3a. Analytical Decision Making - Developing BAU Scenario
- 3b. Analytical Decision Making - Assessing Opportunities
- 3b.1. Assess technical potential for sector technologies
- Renewable Energy Technical Potential Toolkit
- Building Energy Assessment Toolkit
- Power System Screening and Design Toolkit
- Land Use Assessment Toolkit
- Bioenergy Assessment Toolkit
- Transportation Assessment Toolkit
- 3b.2. Assess economic and market potential of technologies and initiatives
- Clean Energy Market Analysis Toolkit
- 3b.3. Prioritize development options
- 3c. Analytical Decision Making - Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios
- 3c.1. Develop low emissions growth scenarios
- 3c.2. Assess institutional framework for LEDS
- Financing Initiatives Toolkit
- Policy and Program Design Toolkit
- 3c.3. Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors
- Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit
- Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit
- 3c.4. Perform multi-criteria impact analysis and assess stakeholder responses
- Clean Energy Impact Assessment Tool
- Sustainable Land-use Impact Assessment Toolkit
Renewable Energy Potential in My Country
Renewable energy potential describes the amount of energy that renewable energy technologies can provide for a given region. For electricity generating technologies, a common measure of potential is gigawatt-hours per year (GWh/year). This describes the amount of electricity that can be generated on an annual basis by a given technology under a certain deployment scenario. It is important to note that this is different from traditional energy reserve estimates, which calculate the total embodied energy of estimated reserves. Renewable energy potential describes the estimated annual generating capacity. This difference is owing to the nature of the resources in question. Fossil resources are finite; renewable resources, though they vary in space and time, are not depleted as they are used.
The approach discussed here is a top-down, regional assessment of renewable energy potential, which aims to estimate the renewable fuel, power or heat generation potential of renewable technologies in a region. This approach does not include any assessment of energy demand or its temporal or geographic distribution across the region. This is distinct from a site-specific assessment in which the energy needs and available resources at a specific location would be compared to evaluate the optimal configuration of technologies for meeting current and future demand at that location.
There are several definitions for renewable potential, and the quantitative estimates of potential will depend greatly on the definition chosen. There is no agreed upon set of definitions, and different definitions used in different contexts. In evaluating renewable potential estimates, it is critical to understand what definition was used to develop the estimates of potential so that they are understood in the appropriate context.
Click here for the definitions used in describing the potential for renewable energy in this module.
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: The starting place for any assessment of renewable potential is a characterization of the renewable resources available across a region, a resource assessment. A regional resource assessment will develop gridded data and maps with annual and sometimes monthly intensity of renewable resources for each grid cell. Typical grid cells sizes used in solar resource assessment are 10-km by 10-km or less. Resource assessments for wind, which has greater spatial variability than solar, will often be done at a spatial resolution of 1-km or less. Once resource data are available for a region, the theoretical potential, or upper limit, can be estimated.
GEOGRAPHIC DATA: Geospatial data sets can be used to identify regions that are appropriate for renewable development and those that should be excluded. Global land cover databases are available that describe the land use categories at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Land use categories will include water bodies, urban areas, cropland, forested areas, and more. Additional geographic data defining protected areas will also be required. Elevation data sets can be used to make slope calculations, which may exclude some areas from consideration or be used in later cost calculations. Infrastructure data will be used in estimating the economic potential, which requires consideration of costs to build transportation infrastructure to development sites or extend the electric grid for electricity evacuation.
TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERIZATION: Information on renewable technologies is used to estimate power production potential under varying resource conditions and the costs of generating power with a given technology.
1.1 Solar Energy Potential in My Country
An estimate of the potential for solar energy in a country will include the potential for grid-tied and off-grid photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP). Fixed costs for solar plants are the same whether installed in high-resource or low-resource locations, but the amount of electricity generated is highly dependent on the amount of available solar radiation, the fuel for solar technologies. As a result, a solar resource assessment is an important tool for evaluating what a region’s solar potential is. This resource information can be analyzed in combination with land use information, the costs and conversion efficiency of the technologies that will be deployed, and the country’s market readiness for these technologies.
1.1.1 Potential for Large-Scale Photovoltaics
This module discusses and approach for estimating the potential for deployment of photovoltaic (PV) plants of 1 MW or larger. The primary output is an estimate of annual potential power generation if all land available for large-scale PV generation was developed for that purpose. To evaluate the technical potential for large-scale PV, you will need the following information:
- Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data in GIS format
- This analysis assumes you are starting with a solar resource assessment where the available solar resource has been estimated across the country at a uniform resolution with each area representing a grid cell. It follows then that each grid cell would only have one value for solar resource, which represents the annual average solar resource (GHI, for PV analysis) for the entire area covered by the grid cell.
- Geographic data describing land use characteristics, including nature preserves and cultural heritage sites
- Country planners would need to determine the land use categories appropriate for large-scale PV development. For instance, land use categories such as agricultural, urban, water bodes, nature preserves, and cultural heritage sites might be deemed inappropriate for large-scale PV development. For other land use categories, planners might determine that all or some percentage of the land could be used for PV development. Elevation data sets are used to determine the terrain slope, which is important as trying to install PV plants on steeply sloping land may substantially drive up the costs. In some cases, planners may want to exclude land with slopes above 5% to limit the analysis to the most economically viable sites.
- PV technology characterization
- This analysis requires assumptions about minimum plant size, density of collectors, and the efficiency of the PV technology to convert incoming radiation to electricity. As we are assuming a minimum plant size of 1 MW, we will need to limit our installations to contiguous land area that meets the geographic screening criteria. When PV plants are planned on sloping terrain, it will be important to adjust the density of installed panels to ensure appropriate there is no panel shading. Though only the PV modules convert sunlight to electricity, a PV plant will not be fully covered by PV modules but will also include balance of system components, access roads and paths, and plant facilities. The fraction of the land covered by modules is the area available for conversion of radiation to electricity. The conversion efficiency will depend on the choice of PV technology.
Once you have compiled all of the required data pieces, the technical potential can be estimated using the following formula.

- APT,PV-lg is the technical potential of large-scale PV in kWh year-1.
- i is each grid cell
- GHIi is the annual average global horizontal irradiance of grid cell i in kWh m-2 day-1
- Ai is the area of grid cell i available for solar development in m2; this value takes into account land use, slope and minimum contiguous area restrictions and is usually determined in a GIS screening process
- p is the fraction of the land covered by PV modules
- n is the solar to electric conversion efficiency of the technology chosen
- 365 has units of days year-1.
This analysis will yield an estimate of annual power production assuming all land designated as suitable for solar power is developed for that purpose and that the technology converts the available solar radiation with the characteristics specified. This analysis does not take into account the economic or market barriers. An expanded study to include these factors would account for the cost of PV technology and necessary grid expansion and enhancements, compare these with other existing or planned power generation facilities and take into account the demand and regulatory framework influencing power generation decisions.
1.1.2 Potential for Concentrating Solar Power
This module discusses and approach for estimating the potential for deployment of concentrating solar plants (CSP). The primary output is an estimate of annual potential power generation if all land available for large-scale CSP generation was developed for that purpose. To evaluate the technical potential for CSP, you will need the following information:
- Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) data in GIS format
- This analysis assumes you are starting with a solar resource assessment where the available solar resource has been estimated across the country at a uniform resolution with each area representing a grid cell. It follows then that each grid cell would only have one value for solar resource, which represents the annual average solar resource (DNI, for CSP analysis) for the entire area covered by the grid cell.
- Geographic data describing land use characteristics, including nature preserves and cultural heritage sites
- Country planners would need to determine the land use categories appropriate for large-scale CSP development. For instance, land use categories such as agricultural, urban, water bodes, nature preserves, and cultural heritage sites might be deemed inappropriate for CSP development. For other land use categories, planners might determine that all or some percentage of the land could be used for PV development. Elevation data sets are used to determine the terrain slope, which will be used in determining land suitable for CSP plants.
- CSP technology characterization
- Producing estimates of CSP potential requires that the analysts make assumptions about plant sizes, the relevant conversion efficiency, the minimum solar resource values for which deployment of the technology is feasible, and the maximum terrain slope that is practical. If you are specifying a minimum plant size, you will need to limit the proposed installations to a minimum contiguous land area that meets the geographic screening criteria. The capacity factors for CSP plants will depend on the technology choice and configuration (parabolic trough or tower and with or without thermal storage) and the average DNI. Finally, CSP plants use tracking systems, so sloping land has to be graded for project installations; this often leads to estimates of CSP potential allowing consideration of only land with very low terrain slope (1% and 3% are maximum values often imposed).
To do rough calculations of CSP potential for a region, it often works best to select a technology that will work throughout the region and use published capacity factors by resource class for all resource levels in the country, noting that below certain levels of DNI CSP deployment is not feasible.
Once you have compiled all of the required data pieces, the regional CSP technical potential can be estimated using the following formula.

- APT,CSP is the technical potential of CSP in kWh year-1
- i is each DNI class
- Ai is the total area in km2 across the country or region in DNI class i that meets all screening criteria, such as land use suitability, maximum slope, and minimum continuous area; this is usually determined in a GIS screening process
- p is the density of CSP plant installation in MW km-2
- 8760 is hours year-1
- CF is the capacity factor, which is a unit-less number between 0 and 1
This analysis will yield an estimate of annual power production assuming all land designated as suitable for CSP is developed for that purpose and that the technology converts the available solar radiation with the characteristics specified. This analysis does not take into account the economic or market barriers. An expanded study to include these factors would account for the cost of CSP technology and necessary grid expansion and enhancements, compare these with other existing or planned power generation facilities and take into account the demand and regulatory framework influencing power generation decisions.
1.2 Wind Energy Potential in My Country
An estimate of the potential for wind energy in a country usually focuses on the utility-scale wind potential, and that is the focus of this discussion here. The main output of this type of assessment will be an estimate of annual power generation potential if all land compatible with utility-scale wind development was used for that purpose.
To evaluate the technical potential for utility-scale wind, you will need the following:
- Wind resource assessment data in GIS format
- As is the case with solar, fixed costs for wind plants are the same whether installed in high-resource or low-resource locations, but the amount of electricity generated is highly dependent on the amount of available wind power, the fuel for wind energy technologies. As a result, a wind resource assessment is an important tool for evaluating a region’s wind potential. This analysis assumes you are starting with a wind resource assessment where the available wind resource has been estimated across the country at a uniform resolution with each area representing a grid cell. It follows then that each grid cell would only have one value for wind resource, which represents the annual average wind speed or wind power for the entire area covered by the grid cell.
- Geographic data describing land use characteristics, including nature preserves and cultural heritage sites
- Country planners would need to determine the land use categories appropriate for utility-scale wind development. For instance, land use categories such as migratory bird routes and cultural heritage sites might be deemed inappropriate for wind development. For other land use categories, planners might determine that all or some percentage of the land could be used for wind development. Elevation data sets are used to determine the terrain slope, which will be used in determining land suitable for wind plants.
- Wind technology characterization
- Producing estimates of wind potential requires that the analysts make assumptions about plant sizes, the relevant conversion efficiency, the minimum wind resource values for which deployment of the technology is feasible, and the maximum terrain slope that is practical. If you are specifying a minimum plant size, you will need to limit the proposed installations to a minimum contiguous land area that meets the geographic screening criteria. The capacity factors for wind plants will depend on the technology choice and the average wind resource. Finally the costs of installation can increase considerably for steeply sloping land and the density of turbines may decrease in complex terrain; to account for this a maximum slope may be imposed in the land screening state. Often times, wind resources below a certain value will be deemed not viable for wind power development, so land not meeting the minimum value may be screened out of calculations of wind potential.
To do rough calculations of wind potential for a region, it often works best to select a typical turbine and apply its general characteristics to the analysis, in particular the capacity factor values for various wind power classes.
Once you have compiled all of the required data pieces, the regional wind technical potential can be estimated using the following formula.

- APT,wind is the technical potential of utility-scale wind in kWh year-1
- i is each wind class
- AMi is the total area in km2 across the country or region in wind class i that meets all screening criteria, such as land use suitability, maximum slope, and minimum continuous area; this is usually determined in a GIS screening process
- p is the density of wind plant installation in MW km-2
- 8760 is hours year-1
- CF is the capacity factor, which is a unit-less number between 0 and 1
This analysis will yield an estimate of annual power production assuming all land designated as suitable for wind is developed for that purpose and that the technology converts the available wind power with the characteristics specified. This analysis does not take into account the economic or market barriers. An expanded study to include these factors would account for the cost of wind technology and necessary grid expansion and enhancements, compare these with other existing or planned power generation facilities and take into account the demand and regulatory framework influencing power generation decisions.
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