Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems (POLES)

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The POLES model simulates the global energy industry and calculates energy demand and supply in different sectors, and the resulting outputs of greenhouse gases. POLES is a partial equilibrium model that is divided into three levels of analysis: the international energy market, the regional energy balance, and the national energy demand.



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This tool is included in the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership.

Approach

The model provides a complete system for the simulation and economic analysis of the world’s energy sector up to 2050. POLES is a partial equilibrium model entailing a yearly recursive simulation process with a combination of price-induced behavioral equations and a cost- and performance-based system for a large number of energy or energy-related technologies.


When to Use This Tool

This tool is most useful for development impacts assessments focused on:

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Social

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Economic

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Environmental

Learn more about the topics for assessing the impacts of low-emission development strategies (LEDS).

Key Outputs

Greenhouse gas emissions, energy projections including energy prices and diffusion of key technologies.



How to Use This Tool

Training Available
None provided; Runs on proprietary software system, Vensim, requires background knowledge to run

Level of Expertise
Advanced

Key Inputs

Energy resources, power generation, emission profiles, GDP, population, oil and gas resources, technology costs and performances (optional)



Case Studies

Examples of how Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems (POLES) has helped people assessing the impacts of low-emission development strategies in countries and regions:

Case studies listed at the POLES website





References

http://www.enerdata.net/docssales/press-office-20th-world-energy-congress.pdf