Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT)

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Logo: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT)
EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels. EFFECT focuses on sectors that are expected to experience a rapid growth in emissions, such as transportation, agriculture and power production.



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This tool is included in the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership.

Approach

EFFECT forecasts GHG emissions as well as energy demand and generation for given development scenarios or policy choices at the national level. The model also produces results for individual sectors such as road transport, agriculture, power, industry, household and non-residential sectors.


When to Use This Tool

This tool is most useful for development impacts assessments focused on:

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Social

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Economic

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Environmental

Learn more about the topics for assessing the impacts of low-emission development strategies (LEDS).

Key Outputs

Greenhouse gas emissions for given development scenarios or policy choices; forecasts of energy balances and amounts of energy-generating/consuming assets in a country or sector; and results for individual sectors such as road transport, agriculture, power, industry, household and non-residential sectors



How to Use This Tool

Training Available
A self-paced e-learning course is available through the World Bank Institute (WBI): http://einstitute.worldbank.org/ei/course/low-carbon-development-planning-modelling

Level of Expertise
Moderate

Key Inputs

National data on economic indicators (total GDP, GDP contribution by sector), the power sector (expected demand growth), general demographics (rural and urban population, electrification rates, etc.), and more.



Case Studies

Examples of how Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) has helped people assessing the impacts of low-emission development strategies in countries and regions:

Case studies on India, Poland, Georgia, and Nigeria are briefly summarized on the website.





"The EFFECT Model is an Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model designed to support open and transparent modeling and comparison of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth for a range of development scenarios. The EFFECT Model focuses on sectors that contribute to and are expected to experience rapid growth in emissions. The model was initially developed for work with the Government of India to support consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy and to assess the impact of policy choices on GHG emission levels. It has since been used in a number of countries, including Brazil and Poland, to support similar objectives."

References

  1.  "EFFECT"