Energy Monte Carlo (EMCEE)

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The USGS developed two Monte Carlo programs for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources. The two programs, EMCEE (Energy Monte Carlo) and Emc2 (Energy Monte Carlo program 2), calculate probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources based on input distributions for numbers and sizes of undiscovered fields. The tools were built in Excel and require the commercially available Crystal Ball to run.



 



EMCEE (for Energy Monte Carlo) and Emc2 (for Energy Monte Carlo program 2) are U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-developed Monte Carlo simulation programs for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources. EMCEE allows a variety of distribution types for input, whereas Emc2 works with a specific set of distributions. Both programs run as spreadsheet workbooks in Microsoft Excel.

EMCEE and Emc2 require Crystal Ball, a commercially available Monte Carlo simulation program from Decisioneering, Inc., that runs in Microsoft Excel. EMCEE and Emc2 forecast undiscovered resources by simulating the sizes and numbers of undiscovered oil and gas fields. The user provides input distributions for several variables. The program samples from these distributions and calculates a forecast of undiscovered resources. This procedure is then iterated a specified number of times and the distributions of forecasts are presented in both tabular and graphical formats.

The programs EMCEE and Emc2 are contained in Microsoft Excel workbooks, copies of which are included in the folder named chapter 26_PROGRAMS. The files are named emcee.xls and Emc2.xls


References

  1.  "A Monte Carlo Simulation Method for the Assessment of Undiscovered, Conventional Oil and Gas"

 This article incorporates public domain material from the document: "A Monte Carlo Simulation Method for the Assessment of Undiscovered, Conventional Oil and Gas"