Develop common vision of "no action" scenario through 2050

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Stage 3

3a.1. Develop common vision of "no action" scenario through 2050

Good Practices for BAU Projections

  • Economy-wide and sectoral BAU projections developed to at least 2030
  • Sensitivity analyses performed for BAU projections
  • Detailed enough to inform evaluation of LED options
  • Credible enough to serve as basis for investment and offset projects
  • Documentation of data sources and modeling assumptions provided
  • Can be validated by third party
  • Publicly available for comment
  • Process for incorporating comments and iteration

At this stage the technical team and stakeholder group can develop a "no action" scenario incorporating the data and projections for economy and development, energy demand and supply, land use, GHG emissions and future climate conditions collected in the previous Module 2.

  • Ideally, as a starting point, the country will have a GHG emission inventory from which to develop a "no action" scenario for GHG emissions. Where sufficient GHG inventory data do not exist, capacity building may be necessary to develop these data before projections can be made. The tools in the Stage 2 GHG Inventory Development Toolkit can be used to support the development of a GHG emissions inventory.


What datasets and tools might be helpful for calculating my country’s baseline projections for the economy and development, energy, land-use, emissions, and climate conditions?

Lessons Learned and Good Practice Resources

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Data Resources for BAU Projection

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Software Tools

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All Resources

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