Computer Programme for Reource Assessment and Risk Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation

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Conference Paper: Computer Programme for Reource Assessment and Risk Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract
The calculation of the geothermal energy reserves based on the range of values of the various reservoir parameters could be carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation. It applies a probabilistic method of evaluating reserves or resources that captures uncertainty. Given the complexity and heterogeneity of the geologic formations of most geothermal reservoirs, this method is preferred over the usual deterministic approach which assumes a single value for each parameter to represent the whole reservoir. Instead of assigning a “fixed” value to a reservoir parameter, numbers within the range of the distribution model are randomly selected and drawn for each cycle of calculation over a thousand iterations. A Monte Carlo simulation handles this complex scenario which allows extraction of each uncertain variable. The results are then analyzed in terms of the probability of occurrence of the reserves and/or equivalent power output in the range of values over the resulting population. The probability distribution function (pdf) quantifies the upside potential and downward risk in sizing up the field power potential, and gives indication on the probable range of proven, probable and possible reserves.

Authors 
Zosimo F. Sarmiento and Benedikt Steingrimsson






Conference 
Short Course on Geothermal Project Management and Development in Central America; Entebbe, Uganda; 2008/11/20


Published 
United Nations University Geothermal Training Programme, 2008





DOI 
Not Provided
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Online 
Internet link for Computer Programme for Reource Assessment and Risk Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Citation

Zosimo F. Sarmiento, Benedikt Steingrimsson. 2008. Computer Programme for Reource Assessment and Risk Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation. In: Short Course on Geothermal Project Management and Development in Central America; 2008/11/20; Entebbe, Uganda. Entebbe, Uganda: United Nations University Geothermal Training Programme; p. 11